…How the drought-depleted dam threatens the closure of Zambia’s largest power plant for the first time in 48 years of service
The imminent shutdown of the Kariba North Bank Power Station, if it happens, will be unprecedented. Since its commissioning in 1976, Kariba North has served Zambia’s power needs without a break, as it was purposed to do. However, severe water scarcity this year may likely bring about something never seen or contemplated.
ZESCO has warned that it may shut down its largest power station by mid-September as the remaining water levels in the reservoir will no longer be sufficient to support power generation. The power station is presently generating under 150MW, a far cry from its installed capacity of 1,080MW when all its six units are deployed at full capacity. Losing Kariba will not only increase the power deficit but also gravely mark a new low in Zambia’s hydro-dependent power generation portfolio.
In the past, several scares and rumors have swirled about the Kariba Dam, the reservoir from which the Kariba North Bank power plant is served. From water-guzzling generators causing load shedding to eroding dam walls. The most potent and true of these, steeped in engineering fact, was the erosion of the basalt foundations of the 128-meter dam wall.
Last month, Zambia and Zimbabwe celebrated the successful refurbishment of the spillway gates and reshaping of the dam’s plunge pool. “Refilling the plunge pool, a significant project milestone enhances the dam’s structural integrity to ensure safety and stability. Reshaping the plunge pool was necessary to prevent a potential dam collapse that could have impacted over 3 million people downstream. It is also critical for ensuring regional energy security,” the Zambezi River Authority stated.
Despite the crucial work done on the dam to ensure energy security, a different problem has arisen that undermines the very energy security sought.
What would a shutdown of Kariba look like?
A question lingering in the minds of many is whether a shutdown means the switches of all the machines are turned to the off position or if it means shutting off five units and leaving one, for instance. Could it also mean generating the minimum possible power using one or a few of the generators for a very limited time daily, for example? What does shutting down a hydropower plant exactly mean?
Each generating unit has a prescribed minimum power production level. Different industry experts are agreed that a total shutdown is highly unlikely. Rather, ZESCO is certain to keep some units producing at this minimum level as it switches some off.
This position conforms to that given by the Minister of Energy Makozo Chikote in his recent comments regarding the shutdown of the plant.
“Kariba [Dam] has not been shut. All we are doing is managing the water we have. We are managing the water in the Kariba so that we are able to reach the other side so that people can start breathing.”
Implications beyond load shedding
Beyond increasing the power availability deficit, could anything arise from this shutdown that might affect the power plant’s future operations? Or will it be touch and go, the moment there’s sufficient water to produce electricity? What, if anything, should the nation be concerned about?
A country’s productivity hinges on energy. Without power, the economy suffers because productive activities limp off and even die. From reduced productivity come job losses, lost incomes, and high prices of goods and services as producers and retailers pass their own increased costs of production and doing business to the end-consumer, who may have lost their job or is equally incurring higher costs of everything, including sourcing for alternative power.
Energy unavailability is obviously a very cruel cycle of negatives, which affects not only big businesses but also consumers and smaller businesses. In fact, small businesses and consumers are hit the hardest because they have less financial muscle to source alternatives or negotiate positions. Added to that, as end users, they have no choice but to absorb the added costs of goods and services that the upper food chain imposes on them.
Most people usually forget that load shedding is largely an urban problem while energy insecurity is a national problem that has plagued Zambia’s entire existence. Rural populations or any areas not served by continuously reliable grid power cannot identify with load shedding but fully understand not having electricity or not being dependent on ZESCO for their electric power supply.
As the nation considers what shutting down the Kariba North power plant will mean for the already dire power supply situation, let’s expand the problem beyond the loss of water and load shedding, framing it more rightly as an energy security problem.
More than ever before, the 2024 energy crisis spotlights the urgent need to de-risk the country’s power generation by introducing other energy sources into the mix and going all out to attract and increase private sector investment in energy.
For decades, investments in Zambia’s power sector have been worse than stunted. Like ignoring to properly feed a child, knowing very well the child is malnourished and must be fed but hoping or still thinking that somehow it will survive sickness and death, that’s what successive power-holders have done to the country’s power sector.
The silver lining in all of this is that Zambia’s power sector will never again be what it has been for some 50-odd years. The bitter pill of going days without knowing when power will be restored to people’s homes or businesses has taught the political and business captains that truly, energy is the lifeblood of social and economic life and to put the money where their mouths are.
Hopefully, it has also taught consumers a thing or two about seemingly farfetched concepts like climate change, energy conservation, and the price of enjoying cheaply priced power.
