By Amos Chanda
Following the Constitutional Court judgement of 10 December 2024 which barred former president Dr. Edgar Lungu from running for high office again, there has been accelerated efforts to re-align the balance of power not just in the main opposition Patriotic Front (PF), but in other opposition parties as well.
This landmark development, coming as it did, on the back of an evidently draining,and unprecedented factionalism in the PF, has left many confused about the former ruling party’s direction both in the short and long term.
The court decision against the former president, almost a month now,seems to have done very little to change the PF’s inclinations into the lingering uncertainty that has come to define its post-government era.
Dr. Lungu or ECL as he is fondly known, remains its leader, and quite curiously, with some within his inner circles, maintaining he is still the PF’s, and Tonse alliance candidate for the August 2026 presidential elections.
Whether this is just for mischief purposes or sheer political brinkmanship, it does not help the standing of ECL as real contender in his current circumstances.
He requires a retreat into his deserved place of honour as the country’s leading statesman.
His own prompt response to the court’s judgement was that he accepts the verdict. But he added he has other ambitions, which he termed “Plan B,” ostensibly pointing to his desire to stay in the political boxing ring long after this watershed moment of his political career.
There are many who think the time for ECL to reconsider his position has never been more important.
His position as an opposition figure strikes conflicting signals almost simultaneously, both as a unifying and polarizing figure in both the PF and the broader opposition.
He has met various opposition leaders and sometimes, swiftly moving to clarify, his engagements with any of them did not mean an endorsement (for president) for the 2026 elections.
His own party remains in semi-paralysis regarding the long delayed leadership primaries to choose his successor.
A dozen of them paid a hefty K200,000 nomination fee to vie for the top seat. But those who control the levers of power in the PF knew all this while, that the planned convention won’t take place and so, these primaries were just a ruse.
And unknown to the other aspirants and the power holders in the PF, one of the hopefuls, Miles Sampa, organized a hurriedly convened gathering to ordain himself as leader of the politically dozing PF.
Many issues have come and gone regarding this matter and the party’s fate remains in the grudgingly slow processes of the courts of law, the least suited place anyone serious can hope to play any meaningful politics.
Even those without political science degrees know that politics are best practiced anywhere but the courts of law. Even the best of lawyers who argue these political cases in courts simply practice the law, and not politics.
Mr Sampa has his own experiences with the courts on the flip side things. His own erstwhile leader of the Opposition in Parliament, Robert Chabinga seem safely in charge as the leader of the PF,in and outside the House. This makes it three presidents(ECL, Sampa and Chabinga)for the same party of the green fame.
Between the courts’(expected) decisions, and the 2026 general election, there is only 18 months.
On the side of life, one can’t tell the feelings of the dead, but it must be a sure disappointment for Mr. Micheal C. Sata, the legendary founder of the party he remarkably led into government within ten years of its formation from relative obscurity.
ECL’s delayed departure from the political stage does not make the case of a smooth transition any easier for the PF.
His image as a statesman, is not enhanced by the polarization that inevitably defines our brutal machine party politics in Zambia.Yet the succession in the PF is long overdue.
It has always been.
The lack of clarity on his retirement has subdued any genuine efforts at the emergency of a new unifying figure,some 40 long months since the PF lost power to the UPND.
But it does seem some sort of transition in both the PF, and therefore in the Tonse alliance could be underway, albeit in some obscured form.
Tonse, under ECL’s chairmanship, announced last week that it will field candidates for any upcoming by-elections and in the 2026 general elections under the NCP or National Congress Party, a key constituent member of the alliance.
This entails a departure from the PF as the flag-bearer of the opposition alliance, but still in a murky form.
This lack of clarity as to who leads the “former” PF into any alliance, undermines not just the viability of such an alliance but also the position of the PF in that alliance. Former here refers to the implied transition of the PF into the NCP, one the one hand, and the tripartite claim on its leadership on the other.
The PF, without its own (eligible) presidential candidate, simply diffuses itself into any alliance as a weakened entity.
It means the green PF, or any of its offshoot(s) still does not have a definitive leader into 2026.
The reason, for any reason(s), behind the status quo, remains the delayed departure of ECL from the centre of the PF.
Ahead of Tonse, was the much touted UKA, or United Kwacha Alliance which remains on the brink of a descent into the peripheries without the participation of the mainstream PF, whose significant parliamentary presence today, makes the very existence of our democracy possible.
Yet ECL is still very much present in some circles of UKA but not with the full backing of his party. Not only that, he is involved with the independent parties such as Zambia Must Prosper of Kelvin Fube Bwalya, Socialist Party of Fred Mmembe, and other smaller parties.
His stated mission is to unite the opposition. But time seems short before the campaign season sets in.
But in a labyrinth of our fiercely competitive messaging environment, the PF is lacking the much needed clarity it needs to unseat an incumbent party with a noticeably formidable campaign machinery.
A comfortably united UPND, buoyed by all the elements of incumbency, has enhanced the ruling party’s pole position towards the 2026 polls in the light of a disunited opposition.
The crisis of identity in the main opposition, and the many encumbrances on the former president as its leading figure, does not enhance opposition prospects for 2026.
An opposition leader who is not an ex-president, can, figuratively get away with “murder”, which ECL can’t.
So,the pronounced advantages of ECL as the PF’s main flag bearer may just be as many as there are disadvantages, therefore,bringing about some kind of net-zero effect for the chances of the PF, with him as leader.
Ideally,any celebration of imminent demise of the main opposition party, a former ruling party at that, would be an illiberal disposition.
But the reality of the rigors of our fiercely competitive multiparty politics, makes it reasonably expected that it would not be the job of the ruling party to keep the opposition united.
Cornelius Mweetwa,the chief government spokesperson recently mocked the PF about this situation.
In a democracy,the methods of competition are obviously reasonably expected to be fair, but in the main, the PF seems to have set itself on a downward descent into possible oblivion when it allowed itself a demoralizing vacuum that has given way to months veritable chaos.
The basis upon which ECL anchored his return to active politics was mainly that he wanted to defend democracy as he put it, and that he could not square it up with his conscious, that a party that gave him the presidency should be killed on his watch.
He said he would unite the opposition and, quite more motivating for him, run for the presidency.
He mobilized and secured the nomination of the Tonse alliance as candidate for the 2026 presidential election.
But the intervening Constitutional Court judgement seemed to have turned upside down all his permutations for high office again.
The merits or a lack thereof, of his arguments for the comeback notwithstanding, the reality of the December 10 court decision is that the Electoral Commission of Zambia won’t accept his nomination papers if, as some in his circles are insisting, he would be still be a candidate elections next year.
If this main reason for his comeback is realistically no longer feasible, what is the next best option for him to contribute to national development?
I should think that a retreat into retirement and resumption of his coveted role of statesman would do him a lot of good.
With all of 68 years behind him, seven of which in challenging service as Head of State, any more years of canvassing as an opposition leader can, and will almost definitely be very punishing on him.
The case for retirement is inevitable. The emergency of another leader is the only viable option for the PF.
This then, should open a possibility of a genuine dialogue between ECL and President Hakainde Hichilema.
The two definitely need a talking relationship, in national interest. They do not necessarily need a political “love affair,” but a working relationship.
The commanding heights of their positions in Zambia’s body of politics makes the need for a working relationship a national imperative.
This relationship must avoid the toxic elements of unbridled partisanship, but adopt a broad-based national agenda that must promote the widest possible consensus among the people.
The political rivalry between HH and ECL, is on course to become the longest-running, most coarse, and most personally disagreeable of all others Zambia has witnessed between presidents and their predecessors.
The nation can’t go on like this. The nation has previously witnessed ugly scenes out of contests between a former president and an incumbent.
There was a rivalry between former presidents Kenneth Kaunda and Fredrick Chiluba but there were moments of respite. Occasional photo opportunities provided the desired reassurance the nation needed to understand that the two men’s differences were more political than personal.
We also witnessed some of the most vitriol exchanges between former presidents Levy Mwanawasa and Micheal Sata, but again there were moments of re-assurance in more ways than one.
So were such invective episodes between presidents Sata and Rupiah Banda. But the two former governors of Lusaka and ex- youth leaders of UNIP, fully understood the weight of responsibility they shouldered for the nation.
Now, as fate would have it, we only have two men in that league. One former, and one incumbent. The two must have a working relationship.
An amicable end to their hostilities is not only good for their mental health, but for the country too.
A restoration for ECL is possible but only within a framework of a reconciled arrangement,whether such an outcome is enforced (morally,or otherwise.
Both sides must take an introspective and inevitably painful critical steps backwards and recommit their fidelity to mother Zambia.
This country gave them the greatest gift it can ever afford any of its son or daughter.
They fully understand this. I should hope they do.
On either side, moderates must reign in zealots to allow for a possible new beginning between these two important leaders of our country.
Cheerleaders will be reserved a place at a time when a new way has been set by HH and ECL.
Now is a time for tough and honest reflections.
This is not a time for a winner-take-all type of posturing.
On any given time, a working relationship between the incumbent and the former president(s)should always be desirable.
Unjustified, unending contests, rancour and disapproval for the sake of it, between the former and the sitting president can only breed the ugly undesirable outcomes.
Previous references in this regard point to ominous dark precedents we must all work to prevent.
There is no doubt in my mind however, that the Church universal, our very soul and moral compass of the nation will continue to intervene towards a positive outcome.
I should hope they are doing so. There’s no tiring away from this very difficult, yet noble cause.
NOTE: The author is a former senior State House aide to Presidents Edgar Lungu (2015-19) and Michael Sata (2011-12)and former diplomat in London, United Kingdom(2012-15).
Source: Kalemba
